(Way Too Early) 2017 Prediction

The Brewers made some strides last season and will make some more in 2017. My prediction is that this is going to be the toughest season for Brewer fans. The Brewers will be very close to a Wild Card spot, and many fans will be calling for David Stearns to make a push at the trade deadline.

Hopefully, Stearns will not give in to the temptation. The last thing the Brewers need is to do what the Astros did in 2015. They went for it a year before they were ready and gave up a ton of prospects, then they took a step back last season. I would much rather have one more season of mediocrity and have success in 2018, 2019, and beyond.

The Brewers have a revamped infield, outfield depth, and a young pitching staff looking to build on a strong second half. Unfortunately, they are counting on a lot of young, inexperienced players, and they are replacing an elite catching duo with a young trio.

My Prediction

The Brewers will be sellers at the deadline. Newcomers Neftali Feliz, Joba Chamberlain, and Eric Thames will be trade chips, as well as Junior Guerra, Scooter Gennett, and of course Ryan Braun.

Orlando Arcia will anchor an infield defense that will be improved over last year’s version. Lewis Brinson could come up by mid-season and have an impact. Brett Phillips will spend most of the year at AAA, but he could be productive in September. Zach Davies, Jimmy Nelson, and Chase Anderson will become solid starters.

My prediction is that the Brewers will gain 9 wins over last year and finish at 82-80.

What Do You Think?

Do you agree with me? Am I full of it? Are the Brewers going to win the World Series? Tell my what you think in the comments below.

2 thoughts on “(Way Too Early) 2017 Prediction”

  1. I do think this will be the toughest season for Brewers fans in quite some time. I do not expect it to be much different from last year, and I certainly don’t think they’ll finish over .500. Unless Nelson makes some kind of miraculous change, I don’t see him lasting with this team much longer because I don’t like what I see from him a lot of the time. I see him as our weakest link among the starters. I like him, but I don’t like how he pitches, especially the way he walks pitchers, a sure sign that he doesn’t have the control he needs when he needs it most. That’s perceived as “backing down.” That said, I don’t think the young catcher corps is a good match for this set of starters. I hope the new guy from the Angels works out, but I’m not optimistic. And lastly, I just don’t see how we’re going to replace the positive run production we got out of Carter. Maybe Thames will be a nice surprise and maybe Braun will be as good as he was last year, but with the threat of Carter gone, I don’t see Braun doing as well because pitchers will be able to be more aggressive with him. There a zillions of unknowns, but I do agree we cannot be sellers at the deadline because these guys all deserve a chance, a chance to show what they have and a chance to gel as a team. I’d go with a final record of 75-87 with basically the same result in the Central we has last year.

    1. You are right about Nelson, he hasn’t lived up to his potential. If he stays with the Brewers, it will be as a 4-5 starter and not the ace that Brewer fans were hoping for. However, if Guerra can have a repeat performance, Davies can continue to develop, and Peralta can pitch like he did in the second half, all we need Nelson to be is a 4-5 starter. And as far as walking pitchers go, I tend to get a little loud when that happens. Especially when the pitcher is leading off an inning. I don’t see it as backing down, though. I see it as losing focus when the competition is lower.

      The catching corps is worrisome. This is the single biggest downgrade for the Brewers over last year. Lucroy is an elite catcher, one who handles a pitching staff well, does a great job blocking balls in the dirt, he improved his throwing game, and he is an excellent run producer. And Maldonado is simply the best backup catcher in baseball. The only thing keeping him from being an All-Star is his bat. Of the 3 Brewer catchers, I like Susac the best. He has the tools and he has been improving defensively. He was brought up through the same organization that Buster Posey came through. This is definitely a position that I will be watching closely this season.

      As far as Carter goes, that is where we disagree. It would be nice to have the 41 home runs, but the strikeouts were killers. If we have somebody who could get on base behind Braun, pitchers would be less likely to pitch around him. Just putting the ball in play gives the Brewers a better chance of scoring a run. The Brewers as a whole and Carter in particular struck out way too many times with runners in scoring position. And Carter’s defense was average at best. Overall, Carter’s WAR was 0.9, meaning that losing him will cost the Brewers less than 1 win. If Thames comes in and puts the ball in play and does a good job defensively, then the Brewers have improved at first. Unfortunately, Thames is not going to be a long-term solution, and I’m not sure the Brewers have a really good long-term solution at first.

      I’m just happy that baseball is about to start. I’m going to do my best to just enjoy the games and watch the kids develop. The 75 wins that you predict would not be terrible. I’m more concerned with how the young players progress than where they finish in the standings. Until next year. Then I’m hoping for a playoff run.

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